Seyyed Abdollah razavi; Iman Mohammad ali Tajrishi
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Iran ranks second in the world in terms of natural gas reserves and fourth in terms of crude oil reserves. In the field of industry, there are four groups of insurance policies, which include exploitation insurances (all ...
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INTRODUCTION Iran ranks second in the world in terms of natural gas reserves and fourth in terms of crude oil reserves. In the field of industry, there are four groups of insurance policies, which include exploitation insurances (all physical assets in operation at the level of the oil industry, especially the four main companies and their subsidiaries), the insurance of development projects, the insurance of hydrocarbon cargoes and freight insurances. on the other hand, the general fields of the insurance industry include property, engineering and energy insurance and liability insurance (medical, accident and life insurance). The purpose of this research is to provide a model of risk management and energy insurance in the upstream sector of Iran's oil industry. Theoretical framework Usually, it is only at the level of the board of directors that with a holistic view, the risk management of the oil industry can be properly considered so that different risks in. Different parts of business are mixed and prioritized and connected to each other. Only the board of directors has the authority to ensure that the risk management, despite other environmental pressures, has paid enough attention to the business. In another definition, strategic risk management in the organization is a decision-making tool that improves safety performance. From a systemic point of view, strategic risk management is carried out in two stages: risk identification and assessment and risk control. All risk management approaches fall into one or more of the following main classes: risk transfer, risk avoidance, risk reduction (or mitigation), risk acceptance (or maintenance) (Ale, 2019). Research strategyThe strategy of this research was in the design part of the data theory model of the foundation and in the field of quantitative measurement, which despite the in-depth study of the theoretical foundations of risk management and insurance in the field of design, a practical and improved model was presented by using the research method. The orientation of the research is developmental and the philosophy of the research is interpretive, and the research approach is inductive. The purpose of the research is to explain the model of risk management and insurance in the upstream sector of the oil industry and it is explanatory research. The research is a single cross-section from 1399 to 1400 and the data collection method is semi-structured interview. The statistical community in the qualitative research stage included academic experts and experts appropriate to the research topic, as well as experts and managers in the field of oil, gas and petrochemicals. The discussion continued and finally 32 people were interviewed. In the quantitative research stage, the statistical population included all the managers and specialists of the main and subsidiary companies in the financial and operational sectors of the oil industry in the state-owned oil and gas development and production companies, as well as the management of the sale of oil shipments, which were from 467 oil and gas experts 285 were selected by available sampling method (managers should be at the upstream and operational levels of the oil industry) and targeted (managers should have at least 10 years of operational work experience in the operational areas of the oil industry in four main companies). And the same number of questionnaires were distributed, and after collecting the questionnaires, 221 people participated in the research. In order to explain the research model, Strauss and Corbin's paradigm model has been used in the foundation's data strategy in the next step to determine the relationships between the variables of the model using the correlation research method. SPSS22 and Smart PLS software were used for quantitative analysis of research data and model fitting. Analysis of the findings In order to achieve the goal of the research, first by reviewing the speech evidence of the research and identifying the concepts, we proceed to the open coding process, then the components of the central coding paradigm including the causal conditions, the main phenomenon, strategies, context, intervening conditions and consequences to They are separated and presented based on their sub-categories and finally linked according to selective coding. Conclusion and suggestionsThe results show that in order to identify the strategic, operational and project risks of the oil and gas industry, it is necessary to first pay sufficient attention to the causal conditions resulting from them. After examining the causal conditions, it is necessary for risk managers to gain an effective and accurate understanding of the issues related to the uncertainty of the oil and gas industry through discussion and attention to the variables of identifying and measuring risks, so that based on this structure and in the heart of paying attention to Contextual and intervening variables bring results that are based on effective management of uncertain areas and shaping the insurance industry.
Seyyed Abdollah Razavi; Motahhareh Hooshmand
Abstract
Introduction The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has enacted restrictive laws to reduce environmental pollution from burning sulfur in ship fuel. With a planned effective date of January 1, 2020, the IMO’s new regulations limit the sulfur content in marine fuels that ocean-going ...
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Introduction The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has enacted restrictive laws to reduce environmental pollution from burning sulfur in ship fuel. With a planned effective date of January 1, 2020, the IMO’s new regulations limit the sulfur content in marine fuels that ocean-going vessels use to 0.5% by weight. The IMO adopted the plan for this policy change in 2016 reaffirmed an implementation date of 2020. High-sulfur fuel oil is an important component of ships' fuel consumption, and demand for it is 3 million barrels per day. Therefore, it can be understood that the demand and price for this fuel oil will decrease (EIA, 2019). The Mediterranean regional market is one of several international physical global oil markets. Benchmark crude, which has a high sulfur content, is Urals crude oil in this market, and benchmark crude, which has a lower sulfur content and higher quality than other crude oils, is Brent in this market. Brent and Urals are used as a benchmark for the pricing of other crude oil in the Mediterranean market. Products made from sour crude oil have a lot of sulfur and products made from sweet crude oil have low sulfur content. Therefore, the demand for sour crude oil is declining also it is not economically viable to desulfurize the product compared to the production of low-sulfur products (Argus, 2019). In the present study, two questions are answered: What effects does IMO law have on the fluctuations in the price of crude oil in the region? Also, what is the effects of low-sulfur and high-sulfur oil products on oil prices? Theoretical Frame work One of the important issues in the field of refining growth is the ability to adapt their production operations to the current state of crack spreads and the ability to respond to demands that are sometimes seasonal and companies can change the production process and a widely used issue in the oil and product refining industry. It is up to them to sell their oil quickly to grow their incomes. Refineries are always exposed to rising crude oil prices and falling commodity prices, which, according to various strategies, increase their profits and reduce the risk of these fluctuations (Edward, 2009). Results and Discussion Since 1988 Brent has been known as the benchmark, and still used for pricing (Salvatore, 2012). One of the most widely used issues in the oil refining and petroleum products industry is crack spread, which points to the difference in the price of a barrel of refinery production and a barrel of crude oil in the study area. Therefore, the higher the difference between the prices of the two, the higher the Netback means net return, and its application is the pricing of crude oil based on a single shipment of products. To calculate the netbook value, we must first calculate the "gross product value" and then deduct the shipping cost to the refinery, the refining cost, and other related costs to refine it (Kameli, 2009). IMO is the only organization dedicated entirely to maritime affairs and a regulatory body in the field of ship fuel and sulfur pollution in marine fuels, enforces its laws to reduce these pollutions, and under the new law. Most of this fuel is high-sulfur fuel oil. According to the results, with the increase in the price difference between two products of high-sulfur fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil due to increased demand for low-sulfur fuel oil, the price of Brent crude oil will grow, but it has the opposite effect on Urals crude oil. It reduces its price. The virtual variable in the model, which shows the effect of the decision to apply the law from mid-2016 to 2020. Brent crude oil will be directly affected by the law, and its price will rise, and its price will be reduced by the difference between low-sulfur and high-sulfur fuel oil products. The price of crude oil in the Urals index is falling through the direct impact of the law, and with rising commodity prices, the price of crude oil in the Urals index is rising. The crude index of the Brent index is a measure of the price of crude oil in the Mediterranean. Therefore, with the increase in its price, the price of Urals oil will also increase. The turmoil, shocks and shocks caused by the sulfur restriction law first boosted Brent crude oil prices and, given the escalation of Brent crude oil market turmoil, the turbulent crude oil market is exacerbating the downturn in the Mediterranean market. Conclusion This could encourage maritime transport companies to use alternative fuels, but this will increase the ship's fuel costs. The cost of investing in new technologies for refining fuel oil and desulfurization is very high and is beyond the reach of many high-sulfur fuel oil producing countries. The ships have never used a scrubber for two reasons. First, the installation of scrubber equipment is expensive, and if the demand for it increases, the manufacturing companies may not be able to provide it, and the demand will increase sharply, which will increase the price of scrubbers again. Scrubbers have never been extensively tested and may not fully disinfect sulfur and if refineries decide to produce low-sulfur fuel, there is no need to use scrubbers. Researchers have suggested that low-tech countries such as Iran, whose production is dominated by distillation towers such as furnace oil, could consider combining sour crude oil with water. Water increases fuel efficiency in combustion operations. This has been done by Sheila Company (Arshi, 2018).
Seyyed Abdollah razavi; mostafa salami far
Abstract
Introduction The Extreme volatility of oil prices was led the numerous disruptions in the world market of oil andtherefore in the world economy in the late twentieth century. Many stocks that oil speculators imported to the market for using the windfall profits affected major oil producers more than ...
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Introduction The Extreme volatility of oil prices was led the numerous disruptions in the world market of oil andtherefore in the world economy in the late twentieth century. Many stocks that oil speculators imported to the market for using the windfall profits affected major oil producers more than any other group because the index of crude oil pricing was always in change. This volatility not only affected their sale market in the spot market but also the obtained revenue from sales of their long-term contracts that were also established a base on the same index. Therefore, manufacturers' revenue faces with instability. Also given the vital role of volatility in financial markets, there has been considerable attention to the analysis of volatility forecasts in recent years. This paper seeks to investigate the impact of financial markets on the behavior of Iran's light crude oil price in the market of East regions, northwest Europe and the Mediterranean. Due to high share of oil revenues in GDP in Iran, as well as high dependence of government budget to oil revenues, any volatility in world prices of oil creates severe disorders in development plans and annual plans of the country, which in turn is led to structural bottleneck in the long term. Methodology Scuch (1974) for the first time pointed to the importance of macroeconomic and financial factors role in the price of agricultural products. But in all subsequent papers, the exchange rate was known as the only mechanism of transmitting monetary policy to the price of agricultural products Chambers and Just (1981, 1982). Monetary policy, even in a closed economy, also affects the price of products such as agricultural products and other basic commodities. The theory indicates that there exists a relationship between the interest rate and the real spot price of oil over the long-term trend. In the framework of this theory, when interest rate increases, the extraction of natural resources increases. The increase in oil supply intensifies the reduction of oil price. This process continues until the beneficiaries (exporters) believe that oil price closes to the final cost of withdrawal. In this situation, there is the expectation of increasing the real oil price so exports reduce and the real price of oil increases to reach the long-term adjusted level. The current model is the model of investigating the effect of monetary policy on basic commodities such as oil. The model shows the negative impact of real interest rate and the positive impact of the expected growth rate of the money supply. Stevens (1995) argues that there have been developments in the oil market from 1980 onwards and by forming and expanding the oil bourses, the oil market has changed to the competitive market and the mechanism of forming the crude oil price has changed that have increased the prices. Moreover, the increase in non-OPEC production has intensified the price volatility and mechanism of forming prices has basically changed after 1980 in such a way that the previous models of forming crude oil prices cannot justify the changes in this period. Therefore, it is necessary to form novel models to include new conditions. Frankel (2010) states that one of the important factors in explaining the behavior of crude oil price in short term can be attributed to changing in the interest rate so that in short term changing interest rate causes deviation in the direction of crude oil price from the balanced way. The process is created by changes in the interest rate that is mainly due to the monetary policy of open market in the Federal Reserve, for example, reducing of interest rate encourages the increase of bonds purchase, which in turn its price increases due to the increase of demand for bonds. Because the bond price has an inverse relationship with the interest rate of bonds, causing the leading of cash flow to the futures market, and its price increases. In the meantime, the decision on the purchase of spot or future of crude oil, in particular, will be taken into consideration to purchasers. Thus, if the obtained cost of maintaining crude oil is more than the profit in the futures market, deal with to purchase future contracts. The reverse can also happen. So it can be said that first, the interest rate is caused volatility in the bond market by changing in the monetary market and then, it has affected future markets, stock, and oil. Therefore, in short-term, changes in the interest rate cause the price deviance from the long-term direction. This means that long-term behavior is determined by fundamental factors, but in short-term, it may be the case that the price is lower or higher than the long-term direction that is due to changes of rate interest. Results The results of the test showed that the difference between the actual price of Iranian crude oil in the northwest market of Europe with its predicted price based on the first and second models has a more favorable situation than the difference in the third and fourth models. The RMSE index for the first and second models is 1.04 and 1.03, respectively. Since in this method, the index indicates a prediction error, therefore, a model with less error than the other, has higher predictive accuracy. So, it can be said that the second model has better predictive power than other models. Therefore, it is suggested that the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) determines its light oil price formula in the northwestern market based on the second model, which will determine the country's crude oil price in this market due to differences in the quality differences of Saudi Arabia's crude oil with Iran, price differences of Brent crude oil with ICE1, usual crude oil price changes and contangoand backwardation Brent structure.
